Fall 2022: something almost never seen in Quebec

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In short: a warmer than normal autumn; Abundant but punctual precipitation; Transition to winter to watch in November. An abnormal context The summer was hot in Quebec. Autumn follows the same trend this year. MétéoMédia experts estimate that the season will be warmer than normal, in an exceptional context. Some important factors will modulate the pace of the next three months. Among the most important, we consider La Niña, this anomaly of cold water in the equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon is present for the third consecutive year. Unheard of in 20 years. “Autumn will be pleasant and very mild, especially in September and October,” says André Monette, chief meteorologist. The season will be marked by several beautiful days ideal for viewing the colors. Heavy rainfall can occur from time to time. The second half could see the arrival of large drop systems favorable to strong winds. » Widespread heat Other major factors explain this unique context that will favor Quebec in terms of temperatures. The North American continent is surrounded by warm waters, not forgetting that the Bermuda High will make its presence felt more often. These elements help pump warm, moist air from the southern United States. “Periods of more or less prolonged good weather with warmer than normal temperatures will prevail throughout the season, adds Réjean Ouimet. Instead, cold air drops will be occasional. This does not exclude marked contrasts during the passage of cold fronts. The duration of these cold air waves should not be prolonged for long periods. » Maximum temperatures between the beginning of September and the end of November: Gaspé: 21°C to 0°C; Sept-Îles: 17°C to -2°C; Rimouski: 20°C to 0°C; Roberval and Saguenay: 20°C to -2°C; Quebec and Lévis: 22 °C to 0 °C; Sherbrooke: 22°C to 1°C; Montreal: 24°C to 1°C; Val-d’Or: 20°C to -3°C; Gatineau: 24°C to 0°C. A surprising autumn Quebec will be entitled to its share of precipitation during the season. Everything will be orchestrated in two stages: a first half marked by a few storms, while the second part of autumn will have the passage of large systems well saturated with moisture. Also, let’s not forget the remnants of tropical systems that sometimes rise into our regions and dump significant amounts of rain. These storms can also generate strong winds. “In the short term, during the coming weeks, when the cold fronts will mark the end of the warm periods, we run the risk of storms, explains Réjean Ouimet. They will be marked by heavy rains, fortunately punctual and very directed. Like this summer. Then, the anticyclone in Bermuda, which will bring heat towards Quebec, could be an open door to the tropics and the storms that accompany it. Heavy rains can cause fall to wet fall camp. » Precipitation between September 1 and November 30 Rarely seen Water temperature in large basins will play an important role this fall. East of Quebec, the Atlantic is abnormally warm. The same on the Pacific side, except for the equator where La Niña has reigned for three years. This context is special: we have rarely seen this combination of factors. A scenario that favors increased humidity towards Quebec. “It is quite strange to see how the La Niña phenomenon repeats itself with such magnitude for the third year in a row,” says Réjean Ouimet. The large extent of this layer of cold water at this time of year is unusual. At the same time, the abnormally warm waters at the level of the Atlantic are also pushing in the direction of bringing the heat to the northeast of the continent where Quebec is located. Dark Spot: The water is abnormally warm in southern Alaska. All this adds a mysterious side to this fall. We are in something almost unprecedented. » ELSEWHERE IN CANADA British Columbia: Near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba: Near normal temperatures, drier weather. Maritime: temperatures and precipitation above normal. Yukon and Northwest Territories: Temperatures near normal. SEE ALSO: These factors will change the look of autumn

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