These 5 factors could break the deadlock as Israel votes for the fifth time since 2019

Israelis are heading to polling stations across the country to vote for the Capitol on the 25th. A fifth vote was held in four years, with several polls predicting incredibly tight competition between the two blocks of Congress. . At the forefront of the campaign to form a government are former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has the Likud Party and its right-wing allies, and Yair Rapidid, the current official, a coalition of the centrist Yesh Atid Party and various supportive parties. Much by the opposition of Netanyahu. Another hopeful is Defense Minister Benny Gantz, head of the National Unity Party. Netanyahu’s bloc had the strongest support in major network polls, with 50 and up to 61 seats. Lapid’s bloc never won 56 seats in that poll, and he couldn’t make it clear how he would form a government if the poll turned out to be true. Rather, if the sometimes unreliable polls are accurate, Lapid’s best hope may be to prevent Netanyahu or another candidate from convening a viable coalition. Gantz tried to position himself as an alternative to Netanyahu and Lapid, which aroused strong opposition from his political rivals. However, the block-breaking coalition constellation he proposes involves a party with bitter hostility, and it’s unclear how he can hit the magic number on his own. That said, there are many factors in the balance that could change the Knesset map predicted by pollsters and experts. Even small changes can break deadlocks and open the way for power to one of your rivals. Receive the Times of Israel’s Daily Edition by e-mail and never miss the top news 1. Arab Voter Turnout There are three Arab lists for this general election, whose fate could decide the fate of the Rapidi initiative. Arab voting could be a major issue as Arab turnout is expected to be lower than in previous rounds. While the outgoing coalition members of the outgoing coalition, the Islamist Raam party, sit with either the Rapid or Gantz governments, the Hadash-Taal alliance has historically formed a wedge-shaped third seat of non-alignment that cannot be used in either bloc. Both stay close to the Electoral College and could collapse without significant turnout. The Palestinian nationalist party Balad is expected not to exceed a minimum of 3.25%, regardless of turnout, with 1.6% of the last pre-election vote on Channel 12. In particular, Hadash-Ta’al is uneasy about the odds and is appealing to Jewish voters to cast a “strategic” vote for the party on rare weekends and secure at least four seats on Tuesday. MK Ayman Odeh, Chairman of the Joint Cataloging Party, attends a meeting of the Internal Security Committee in the Knesset, Jerusalem, December 13, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) About 17% of Israel’s nearly 6.8 million voters are said to be Arab. The Central Statistical Bureau and the National Election Commission. Historically, Israel’s Arab community, including Muslims, Christians, and Druzes, has lower turnout than Jewish voters. In the last election, Arab turnout fell to an all-time low of 44%. This compares to 72% of Jewish voters and 67% of all voters. Low turnout meant that the representation of Arab parties in the parliament decreased. When four Arab political parties entered the joint roster in 2020, their Arab representatives won a record 15 seats. After Ra’m was removed from the joint roster in 2021, only 10 group seats were won among them. Now the joint list has been subdivided into Hadash-Ta’al and Balad and Ra’am continues to run separate campaigns, while Arab turnout has slipped from a low of 37% to a high of 48% in recent weeks. If Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am fail to rejoin Knesset, the Likud-led bloc is expected to profit proportionately and pave the way for power. If both are lacking, the outlook for Netanyahu will be better. Having both in the Knesset will open up an opportunity for Lapid to prevent another government from being formed. Likud asserts that it may seek coalitions that include or depend on Hadash-Ta’al. Both Lapid and Hadash-Ta’al counter that this is a potential scenario. In the final days of the campaign, some analysts suggested that Arab participation could be higher than the polls suggest, and even ballads could potentially get close to passing the 3.25% Knesset threshold. Previous elections have shown that pollsters have a particularly difficult time predicting Arab votes. 2. Haredi Voter Turnout New concerns about Haredi voter turnout have emerged in recent weeks. As voters allied with the Ashkenazi Haredi party, United Torah Judaism, are frustrated by the party’s management after a year in the opposition. UTJ currently holds 7 seats and has consistently voted to return this number. Low turnout or losing votes to other right-wing parties could bring this number down to six, a scenario that has caused a lot of panic in Haredi politics. However, it only affects the immediate deadlock if the seat leaves the block. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, Haredi voters represent 11% of the electorate and most votes go to UTJ and the Mizrahi Haredi party Shas. In the last general election, Haredi’s turnout reached 80%. However, Kan Public Broadcasting reported that by mid-October, Haredi’s turnout was expected to drop by 12%. Rabbi Yitzchak Goldknopf, president of the United Torah Judaism, poses for a photo in Jerusalem on September 13, 2022. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90) A surge in popularity for Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben Gvir, especially among younger and more nationalist Haredi voters, has also led to votes. Opinion polls show you are far from the party. According to Kan, about 6% of Haredi votes could be exploited by Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit. This will not change the math block or the ability to form a government, but it will shift the power dynamics within that government if the Haredi party ultimately loses its seats. 3. Yamina’s former voters seeking their hometown In 2021, former ruling party Yamina, led by Naphthali Bennett, won seven seats and unexpectedly made him Prime Minister, but failed to vote in November of this year. The dissolution of the party has resulted in some political refugees. Nearly a third of Yamina’s March 2021 voters identified themselves as members of the national religion and generally belong to a moderately mainstream version of the diverse spectrum of national religions. It also gained ground from some secular right wing and traditional voters. In contrast, 61% of the 2021 voters of religious Zionist parties were religious nationals, and the party is considered to represent the far-right of that spectrum. Ayelet Shaked (center) and Yossi Brodny (right) at the Jewish Families Campaign event in Givat Shmuel on September 20, 2022. (Flash90) Yamina’s legacy is now best represented by Ayelet Shaked, the former agent of the Jewish family and its leader, Bennett. However, the party continued to struggle in the polls, achieving only 1.5%-2% in the final major network poll over the weekend. While many former Yamina voters have migrated to religious Zionism or other right-wing or centrist political parties, some are still considering voting for Shaked. Shaked says Netanyahu needs her to complete the numbers for his mistress. Netanyahu’s camp claims that she burned her right-wing vote on her way out of Knesset, endangering the entire company. If her voters feel her hopes are gone and abandon her, they can reduce the number of wasted right-wing votes and lift Netanyahu into the streets of an overwhelming majority. At the other extreme, if Shaked outperforms his hopes of a Knesset advance, he could hand over an additional seat to Netanyahu or reserve it for him if he takes a seat from Likud in the first place. 4. Left Party Gnawing the Threshold The poor performance of two additional parties in Lapid’s bloc could affect Netanyahu’s elections. Left-wing Meretz and centre-left Labor Party are swaying near the threshold. With not much movement between blocks, much of Yesh Atid’s gradual rise in polls during the campaign came at the cost of undermining his left partner. Meretz and the Labor Party frantically worked last-minute to convince voters to come out and vote rather than increase the number of seats Lapid’s Yesh Atid hopes to get. Polls predict an easy victory for Netanyahu if Labor or Meretz step down from the Knesset. Labor leader Merab Michael Lee simply rejected Rapid’s efforts to unify Merets with her own party before her September nomination deadline, recognizing that she gives Merets her lifeline. preferred to keep her Labor Party as an independent organization than to Will her decision come back to haunt her? Transport Minister Merab Michael speaks during a press conference in Tel Aviv on September 14, 2022. (Flash90) 5. Yes, the weather is probably the most common factor. Expected inclement weather can undermine the willingness of unmotivated voters to vote. to the polling place. Experts expect this could reduce turnout in some areas. Israelis are required to vote in person at certain designated polling places, except under special circumstances, including COVID-19-related quarantine, disability, or hospitalization. On the other hand, rain across Israel also reduces the attractiveness of going to the beach, hiking, or having a family picnic. Historically, most Israelis enjoy their days off from work, so any activity that competes with voting obligations. Workers prepare ballot boxes for the upcoming Israeli elections in Shoham’s Central Election Commission warehouse before they are shipped to polling places on October 12, 2022. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
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