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NFL Week 7 Prediction, Best Picks: 3 Late Slate Expert Picks for Sunday

Sean Koerner is Director of Predictive Analytics at Action Network. Follow him on the Actions app and you’ll get all his choices as soon as he makes them. NFL Odds & Picks Click Pick to Skip ahead Jaguars -3 1:00 PM ET Broncos +1.5 4:05 pm ET Texans-Raiders < 4:05 PM ET 49ers +1 4:25 PM ET Jaguar Pick -3 Best Reserve Time 1 PM EST Sean Koerner: The Giants have a 5-1 record for the season despite every game being a one-point variety. Being one of the most advanced and one of the luckiest teams thanks to Brian Daboll's savvy coaching are two factors that could both be true. In fact, New York took first place on the lucky list, and it wasn't taken seriously by the public until this week. 62% of the action came to the Giants and I think now is the time to not only fade them, but also support the Jaguar, the 4th unlucky team according to our rankings. That's a 27 lucky rank difference between the two. Teams with a luck difference of 16 or more have posted 14-2 ATS since they started tracking in Week 3. Jaguar is 8th on the DVOA and the Giants are 18th. There are situations where both teams should have a record close to 3-3. Another key to the game: Trevor Lawrence did a lot better against Blitz this year. This is very important considering the Giants' offense is the fastest in the league, led by defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Here's Lawrence's ranking for the Blitz (out of 34 QBs): ANY/A: 13thQB Rating: 15thEPA/play: 5th My intuition, along with many others, would probably consider the Giants +3 a gift. But if you take a step back from both teams' records and those records, you realize that Jaguar could be a better team and the book wants you to fade them. I'm locking the Jaguars at -3 and there's a good chance we'll see this reach -3.5 before kickoff. » Back to Table of Contents « Broncos Pick +1.5 Best Book Time 4:05 PM ET Sean Koerner: Russell Wilson has been removed from the game and Brett Rypien starts instead. If Wilson had been healthy, the Bronco would have had a preference of 3.5-4. From Wilson to Liffeen, get off at about 5 points. But crossing the three major numbers here means I will only lower the spread to around Denver -1.5. Rypien is a below-average backup, but the Jets do not score many points against the solid defense of the Broncos, who are currently second in the DVOA. A game where Denver can rely on a run game and stay close. Spectators are all over the jet here with 70% of the action. But this is also the point where our lucky ranking differs by 21 (9th in Jets vs. 30th in Broncos). I'm using the Broncos +1.5 and I think I should like it a bit. » Back to Table of Contents « Under 45.5 Best Book Time 4:05 PM ET Sean Koerner: 70% of the action is over, but I think the matchup is more suited to the under. The Raiders started the season with the 4th highest early down pass rate (under neutral conditions) in Weeks 1-3. However, they have relied on the ground game in their last two competitions and are the 10th highest scoring heavy team in the early downs. Given that the Raiders, who are ranked 29th on the DVOA and face defense of the Texas Run without Darren Waller, are a 7-point home favorite, look for an opportunity to rely on Josh Jacobs. The Texans will fight back, leaning on rookie RB Dameon Pierce, who has seen over 20 carry in two of their last three games. The Raiders are much better for runs (15th on DVOA) than for passes (30th), and it's unlikely that Davis Mills will be able to take advantage of it. The sophomore QB is struggling this season, ranking #30 on ANY/A, #25 on QB Rating and #31 on EPA/play. Mills could come under considerable pressure against a team that rests with Maxx Crosby and two talented edge rushers from Chandler Jones. I'm expecting this closer to 44 and will only bet 45.5. » Back to Table of Contents « Pick 49ers +1 Best Book Time 4:25 PM ET Sean Koerner: The 49ers welcome back Trent Williams, Nick Bosa and Jimmie Ward this week. This will help to significantly improve offense and defense. . They also traded Christian McCaffery to make their team debut. He doesn't look like he'll see much play time, but he still needs to power his offense. This will be very important against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. I'm expecting the 49ers to be a 1.5-point favorite here and I like to get it at +1. » Back to Table of Contents « How would you rate this article? #NFL #Week #Prediction #Picks #Late #Slate #Expert #Picks #Sunday

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