Dow futures rise; Tesla Skids for sale, Musk

Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures rose slightly early Thursday, while Nasdaq futures faltered and fell on mixed results despite Tesla CEO Elon Musk hinting at a “significant” TSLA stock buyback and forecasting an “epic” fourth quarter. But he also acknowledged that the EV giant sees weakness in China and Europe. The attempt to rally the stock market on Wednesday failed as yields on X 10-year Treasury bonds hit a 14-year high. Netflix (NFLX) generally led strong earnings results, providing some support for the stock, but also suffered some big losses. Earnings Tesla (TSLA) slightly beat earnings forecasts but fell short of sales. Musk acknowledged China and Europe, but said the fourth quarter would be “epic”. TSLA shares were sold overnight. Lam Research (LRCX), Alcoa (AA), IBM (IBM), Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) reported late Wednesday. Lam Research’s revenue and earnings beat first-quarter forecasts for the fiscal year, but the chip gear maker said it would lose up to $2.5 billion in revenue due to US curbs on Chinese exports. LRCX shares rose early Thursday. Shares rose 2.5% on Wednesday, supported by strong ASML (ASML) pre-open performance and guidance on Wednesday. Alcoa reported a surprising loss during the lack of sales. AA shares plunged on extension measures. Shares fell 5.3% on Wednesday. IBM ranked first in both revenue and revenue. IBM shares rose modestly after falling 0.35% on Wednesday. Las Vegas Sands reported slightly weaker-than-expected quarterly losses and earnings. LVS shares rose modestly in long-term trading after falling 0.7% on Wednesday, perhaps due to reports that China could shorten Covid quarantine times for visitors. Sands’ stock briefly broke from a low in early October, but the stock plummeted after a sell-off and another rise in China’s COVID-19 cases. 1st place in Steel Dynamics performance and revenue. STLD stocks fell before opening. Shares fell 1.3% to 80.68 on Wednesday, but remained above the 50-day line. The consolidated buy point for Steel Dynamics stock is 88.72, according to MarketSmith. It is close to entering the trend line. American Airlines (AAL) earnings came in better-than-expected early Thursday and earnings slightly beat consensus. It also provided an optimistic fourth-quarter outlook. AAL shares rose slightly on Thursday morning. After strong guidance from United Airlines (UAL) and last week’s Delta Air Lines (DAL) late Tuesday, Nucor (NUE) also climbed 2.1% after hitting number one on Thursday morning, after which shares rose 2.1% on Wednesday, continuing their gains for a seventh session, though Steel Dynamics rivals sees the fourth quarter. Earnings lower than Q3 EPS. NUE shares fell solidly before opening after hitting resistance at the 50- and 200-day moving averages in the market on Wednesday. Dow Jones Futures of the Day Dow Jones Futures Pink 0.5% vs. Fair value even if IBM stock offers a boost. S&P 500 futures rose 0.35%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2% after falling more than 1% overnight. Tesla stock is a large S&P 500 and Nasdaq component. Futures are as volatile as they have been in the past few weeks as global bonds and markets add to uncertainty. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.12%, rising and falling. There is also new speculation that a new British Prime Minister, Liz Truss, will be forthcoming. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index made up for its losses, but fell to its lowest level in 13 years. The Japanese yen has hit an all-time low. The dollar has depreciated since 1990 as the Bank of Japan bought unscheduled bonds to curb Japanese yields. The value of the Chinese yuan has hit an all-time low. Overnight reports suggest that China could cut coronavirus quarantine times for visitors. This could alleviate China’s economic concerns. Crude oil futures rose 2%. Copper prices rose 2%. Remember that overnight action on Dow Futures and elsewhere does not necessarily lead to real trading in the next regular stock market session. Join an IBD expert analyzing viable stocks in a stock market rally at IBD Live Stock Market Rally. The leading index moderated losses somewhat through the close. The lukewarm beige book report that provides positive signs from the Fed on the labor market and inflation may have helped. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% in the stock market on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.85%. Small cap Russell 2000 fell 1.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points to 4.13%, the highest in 14 years. Yields rose as UK inflation hit a 40-year high. The 10-year yield has been on an upward trend for the 12th week in a row. US crude oil prices rose 3.3% to $85.55 a barrel, despite the Biden administration’s plan to release more crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Natural gas prices expanded their sharp recent losses by 3.9%. The Fed Pivot is coming. Here’s a proof ETF. Among the best ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) rose 0.7% while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) was down 2.1%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) was down 1.15%. The VanEck Vector Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 0.8% as ASML and LRCX stocks helped. Reflecting the more speculative story stock, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 4.2% and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) fell 5.5% to its four-month low. Tesla stock is the most held in Ark Invest’s ETF. The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) was down 2.4%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) ended flat despite UAL, AAL and DAL all rising. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was down 4.8%. Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) rose 3%. The Healthcare Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) fell 1.4%. 5 Best Chinese Stocks to Watch Now Tesla Earnings Tesla earnings soared 69% to $1.05 per share and revenue rose 56% to $21.45 billion. Analysts expected Tesla to post earnings of $1 per share and revenue of $23.3 billion, a 62% increase. Musk said in his earnings call to Tesla that he would “repurchase some sort of stock” for between $5 billion and $10 billion in 2023. Tesla’s CEO expects an “epic” fourth quarter and says demand is “great”. However, Musk did not directly answer questions about the backlog and new orders, particularly outside the US. But he said China and Europe are experiencing some economic weakness as a sign that they are influencing demand. The third quarter shipments reported earlier this month easily set a record at 343,830, but missed roughly 360,000 views. It also fell short of producing around 22,000 vehicles. However, it was widely speculated that China’s weakness was a major factor in the supply shortage in the third quarter. Even with a few new incentives, waiting times have been significantly reduced. This is because the local backlog has been reduced to zero. Tesla claims that logistics costs have spurred the end of the quarter rush to calm down. Musk said it will build additional inventory in the fourth quarter to help with this shift with production. But even though he said he wants to streamline logistics, Tesla’s local deliveries in China and major European markets are once again very slow to kick off the fourth quarter. Thanks to recent upgrades, Shanghai factory output is surging in the fourth quarter. Berlin and Austin are also slowly starting production. In the US, the new EV tax credit will help Tesla in 2023, but it’s unclear which vehicles it will cover. An upcoming tax credit could spur potential buyers to put their purchases on hold until January. Cybertrucks will also help in the United States if mass production begins next year. Musk said “early” production would start in mid-2023. As Musk previously tweeted, Tesla Semi deliveries will begin on December 1. It’s unclear how many will be made now or in 2023. Despite limited production, Tesla Semi will not currently use 4680 batteries. Tesla said its 4680 battery cell production tripled in the third quarter. Q2. However, this still corresponds to a small number of battery packs. Larger form factor batteries are not yet mass-produced, making cost savings difficult. Musk said new Tesla drivers will soon have access to a fully autonomous driving beta. However, the FSD beta will remain a level 2 driver assistance system for the time being. Musk goes further, saying that Tesla is working on a new, smaller, much cheaper vehicle, which will still be the EV giant’s biggest sale. However, he did not give a schedule. Tesla vs BYD: Which EV Giant is the Better Buy? Tesla stock Tesla stock fell 6% early on Thursday, but broke from overnight lows. TSLA shares first cut losses on Wednesday night after Musk’s share buyback remarks, but plummeted after acknowledging weakness in Europe and China. Wednesday’s pink is 222.04 at 0.8%. TSLA shares are up 8.3% so far this week, but after dropping to a 15-month low last week. Tesla stock hit a record 414.46 in November 2021. One important question is whether Musk needs to sell more TSLA shares to finance the Twitter (TWTR) trade. According to at least one analysis, Musk had to sell $8 billion worth of Tesla stock. Musk didn’t talk about it, but he said he was “excited” about buying Twitter, although he admitted he was “overpaying”. TWTR shares were up 1% overnight. Shares rose 0.1% on Wednesday to $51.83, close to the acquisition price of $54.20. Market Rally Analysis Wednesday’s stock market rally attempted further progress. However, soaring 10-year Treasury yields weighed on major indices, masking their generally strong performance. Netflix and a few other big companies flattered the major indices. The downtrend, however, overtook the winners on the NYSE and Nasdaq by nearly 3:1. Small caps Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 fell sharply, while the Nasdaq Composite was far worse than the Nasdaq 100. Dow Jones remained above the 21-day moving average, but the S&P 500 fell again below its short-term level. So did Russell and S&P MidCap. The Nasdaq briefly crossed those levels on Tuesday and fell further on Wednesday. The index is still looking for a follow-up date to confirm a new uptrend. The attempt to rally the market will continue unless the leading index lowers its October 13th low. Time to market with IBD’s ETF market strategy What to do now Despite continued rally attempts, it’s still a bear market. The whiplash movements of major indices and major stocks during regular and long-term trading make it difficult to play stocks, even over very short periods of time. If you take any position, make them small and take profits and losses quickly. There is nothing wrong with keeping all or part of it in cash. Work on that watchlist. Many stocks are not far from blinking buy signals. Just because they trigger an item doesn’t mean you don’t have to do anything. That means you can overdo some stocks that turn out to be big winners. But it also prevents you from buying stocks that reverse quickly and possibly sell badly. Read the big picture daily to stay in sync with market direction and key stocks and sectors. Follow Ed Carson on Twitter @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more. You may also like: Why do you want this IBD tool to simplify your search for top stocks to make quick profits and avoid big losses? 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