Republicans take the lead in the seats into the final week and voters are skeptical of the situation.

The election is already underway. Millions of people voted before November 8th, and tens of millions more will vote. Meanwhile, 8 in 10 voters describe the situation in America today as “out of control” rather than “under control.” That doesn’t bode well for the ruling party. Republicans have over 20 points over those who say “out of control” right now, although they are often the ones who feel that way at first. So where do things stand? Republicans are now in a good position to win a majority in the House of Representatives. But voters’ current intentions suggest anything is possible, from a significant GOP majority to Democrats. The latest models represent the range of possibilities that can be explored using the interactive tools below. In the base model, Republicans hold 228 seats. That marks a slight change from a few weeks ago, with the party reclaiming some of the leads that slipped from them in the summer. That constitutes a 15-seat win, which is lower than the average for a party challenging a first-term president in recent history. At that level, the majority line is at the lower edge of the margin of error of our model. If you’re watching on Election Night, this scenario may not be immediately obvious, depending on the situation in which certain seats are turned over. (Seven out of ten voters expect it to take at least a few days (perhaps a week or more) to see all the results.) So what would a politically-political scenario where Democrats dominate the House? We rescued Democrats late in the game by running our estimates through a turnout model where young voters came out in far greater numbers than our baseline model represents. This is contrary to what young voters have been telling us in their polls and what we’ve seen in recent weeks in early voting results, but it’s not impossible. It’s more like what happened four years ago when there were less than 45 voters. And people of color voting in swarms. Since they are primarily a Democrat group, a match to record turnout in 2018 would prevent Republicans from winning and shift control of the House of Representatives to a toss-up of around 218 seats. If this scenario comes true, it will take days or weeks through November for a handful of close races to resolve and unveil a new balance of power. Then there’s the large-scale Republican turnout scenario based on the trends we’ve seen. In particular, there is an additional upward path on Election Day due to a surge in turnout among white voters without a college degree. 3 in 10 voters and less than 1 in 10 voters. The older, Whiteer voters will overturn more Democrat seats as a result and boost the GOP total to around 238. A direction widely regarded as bad would suggest a large intermediate loss for the ruling party in recent history. But now is not the usual time for the country. And there are dramatic differences between the parties when it comes to what the issue is this year. We simply asked whether the United States would have a strong economy or a functioning democracy, what was more concerned about. The nation is closely divided. That doesn’t mean people don’t want both. But those more interested in democracy are supporting Democrats, and Republicans reflect the party’s campaign message, attracting most of those more concerned about a strong economy. Polling place tensions? Leading this primary, but see the sentiment sparked by Republican suspicions about the voting process going on since 2020. Report the number of votes cast on Election Day. And two-thirds support the idea of ​​civilians patrolling ballot boxes and polling places. Independents and Democrats oppose it. Republicans appear to be successful in different campaign themes and messages. Which campaign messages are blocked, for better or worse? Here’s what voters think based on who wins: Some Republican messages that reflect their advantage appear to have been put on hold. After the criminal economy and inflation, crime is the most important issue for voters. Republicans have a double-digit lead over Democrats who have policies that will make you safer from crime. This is in large part due to the way Republican voters perceive Democrats’ approach to police funding and criminal justice. More than half of voters think Democrats will cut police money. Republican messages about immigration and border immigration are resonating with some voters. By a 3:1 vote, voters believe Democrats put the interests of recent immigrants ahead of those of current American citizens. And the majority thinks Democrats will “open the U.S.-Mexico border.” Those who adhere to this view are voting for the Republican majority. The Democratic Democratic Party raised issues of threats to democracy, including ‘election fraud’. How important is this? For those who, as has long been the case, are already inclined to vote for Democrats. For them, the “MAGA” label for a candidate is largely negative. However, there is little evidence that it moves or disqualifies. People who tend to vote for the Republican Party. We’re keeping a balance, the candidates say they support the January event. June 6, 2021, and alleging that President Biden did not legally win the 2020 presidential election is net negative among midterm voters overall, but not for supporters of the Republican nomination. Most of the candidates don’t care whether they support the January 6th case, and 4 in 10 are unlikely to vote for a candidate who is actively criticizing them. Positive, 3 in 10 are voting for the Republican nominee, hoping that if Republicans take control of Congress, they will try to overturn Democrats’ victory in the midterm elections. If the Republicans win, one of the things most voters expect is that the Republican-controlled Congress will try to impeach Biden. The majority of supporters of Republican and Democrat candidates expect the Republican Party to try it. SchoolsRepublicans talked a lot about what schools teach in their campaign. Parents care a lot at school, so harnessing these feelings can have some effect. But it’s not just about teaching. The majority of parents are concerned about school shootings, bullying and declining student learning during the pandemic. In particular, a majority of Republican parents are concerned about classes that discuss issues of sexuality and gender. But they aren’t the only ones on this issue, as most parents, including nearly half of Democrats, are generally vocal about it. Abortion – Enough for Democrats? The abortion issue has helped keep Democrats in this race, but the percentage that values ​​abortion very seriously hasn’t changed, nor has the ranking of those we identify as “recalling the eggs” voters. Women who prioritize protecting abortion rights will only vote for candidates who agree on this issue. Voters expect federal action on abortion no matter which party controls Congress. 84% of voters think they will try to pass a national right to abortion if Democrats take control of Congress. (Democrats overwhelm voters wanting to legalize abortion.) A minority majority think Republicans will try to pass a national ban on abortion. The Social Security Democrat campaign has been attacking Republicans on Social Security, but it appears to have mixed results. A small majority think Democrats will increase Social Security benefits. Democrats win most of these voters. But most voters don’t think Republicans will cut Social Security. The majority of gas price voters think a Republican victory will boost America’s energy production, and they’ve got these voters. Voters overall tend to think that gasoline prices will rise rather than fall if Democrats take control of Congress, and they tend to think gasoline prices will fall rather than rise if Republicans win. Price is overwhelmingly voting for Republicans. How does the economy affect race and do Republicans need a plan? It looks like Republicans help the wealthy 3:1 more than the middle class, but this is true. The majority believe that Biden and the Democrats should be held accountable for the economy. Most of those who think so are voting for the Republican Party, and since they support the Republican Party, it may be sufficient to hold the party accountable whether or not they have a plan for what they will do if Republicans take control of Congress. More than half of independents are blaming Biden on issues like gasoline prices, crime and immigration, and those who do are support Republicans. . Now fewer Democrats say they support Biden than two weeks ago. And Democrat voters who say they vote for the president don’t say they will turn out higher than those who say their vote isn’t about the president. What about Trump? Former President Donald Trump, like the current president, remains negative among voters. Republicans are far more likely to say their vote is about Biden than Trump. Trump is a positive motivator for those who consider themselves part of the MAGA movement. Historically, perceptions of what political observers might call “fundamental”—the state, the economy—displace elections like this from the party. from strength. But again, this is a different era than the one that propagated a lot of those ideas. This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted with a national representative sample of 2,119 registered voters interviewed between October 26 and 28, 2022. Samples were weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the US Census American Community Survey. and the current census and the 2020 presidential vote. The margin of error is ±2.4 points. House seat estimates are based on multi-step regression and post-stratification models that incorporate voter responses to this survey. Each party’s seat estimates have a margin of error of ±12 seats. Toplines More Anthony Salvanto Dr. Anthony Salvanto is the Director of Elections and Investigations at CBS News. He heads the CBS News Decision Desk, which oversees all votes for national, state and House of Representatives primaries and estimates results on Election Day night. He is the author of “Where Did You Get This Number: A Guide to Polls” by Simon & Schuster (a division of ViacomCBS) and appears regularly on all CBS news platforms. His academic research and writings cover topics on voting methodology, voting behavior, and sampling techniques.
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