Democratic Party ‘middle hope fades’ ‘peaks a little early’

For Democrats, the timing couldn’t be worse. Gas prices have been falling for several weeks and then rising again. Inflation is still out of control and the stock market is strong despite rallying on Monday. Meanwhile, Republicans have been pushing Democrats over the economy and crime with smashing advertisements since Labor Day. And all of this is happening with early voting already underway in major states. “I think you can’t say anything about this figure nationwide, but it looks like it’s moving in the Republican direction.” Mark Longabaugh Progressive Advertising Producer Mark Longabaugh said, “I’ve been doing this for 30 years and the times when elections start to tilt are always late September and early October.” Someone who participated in Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign. “So, we are at that moment, and I think you can’t say anything about these numbers across the country, but it looks like it’s moving in the Republican direction.” “I think it’s clear that the Republicans have the upper hand,” he said. Just a few weeks ago, things looked much better for Democrats. The party has been overwhelmingly successful in special congressional elections in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York. In Kansas, a strong Republican state, an anti-abortion ballot bill was rejected. President Joe Biden’s public approval ratings were also rising after a series of legislative victories. But then, when Roe made headlines almost every day, or the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, temporarily put Republicans on a gun defense. It’s no longer a mass shooting or 10-year-old rape victim making news across state borders; Crisis “At the forefront of Michigan’s primaries” In a New York Times/Siena College poll, only 5% of voters cite abortion as their top issue. 44% cite economic concerns. Voters vote Republicans by a large margin over Democrats One Democratic strategist advising major party donors scoffed, “I think August had a really good three weeks of everyone patting themselves.” I thought it would be enough to get through it all.'” Now he said, “I can’t see very well. The best we can hope for right now is 50-50 in the Senate, but the House is long gone.” Midterm elections have historically been expected to always punish Democrats whose political parties in the White House are suffering from midterm elections. “Recent polls are partly reflecting the reality that as Election Day approaches, reality is emerging,” said Selinda Lake, a prominent Democratic pollster who advised Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign. Swing voters with delayed elections “are anxious about inflation and the stock market because they tend to be very sensitive to what they think is the most recent economic change,” she said. … They’re nervous about the price of gasoline and we [Democrats] We have to keep pushing that there is a better economic agenda.” Biden is struggling to do just that. “Our economy is as strong as hell,” he argued during a weekend campaign on the West Coast. And few Democrats today are as distraught as in previous midterm elections, including 2010, when Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House. Ahead of that election, Gallup got Republicans up 10 percentage points in the general congressional vote. This year’s figures are even closer, according to the FiveThirtyEight poll average, with Democrats still holding a narrow lead in the popular vote. Pete Giangreco, a longtime Democrat consultant, said it’s “hard to believe” the idea of ​​a “big change” in voters after weeks of tight state and local voting at the state and local levels. “I don’t see anything like 2010 or 2014,” he said. “By now, everyone was in a bubble and panic at the time, and that’s not the case now. This year is different. I don’t know what the outcome will be, but it’s not 2010, it’s not 2014.” One difference from the midterm cycle before Donald Trump is that this year’s Democrats are still benefiting from the primary season that has put Republicans into hard-line candidates, even though it looks like it’s never been possible. He mentioned that it was a ‘candidate quality’ issue. It’s possible that recent polls don’t fully understand the importance of the surge in Democratic-leaning voter registration since President Roh. “Anyone who says they know what the turnout will be on the midterm is bluffing,” Lake said. Even so, Republicans are leading the Democrats in the US Senate primaries in Nevada and Wisconsin, and the accusations that Herschel Walker instigated and paid for his ex-girlfriend’s abortion do not appear to have sunk him in the nearby Georgia primaries. The Senate is a toss-up and the Democrats will almost certainly have a good night in the House. Earlier this summer, there was at least some openness among Democrats about the possibility. “It feels like our midterm exam. [of the White House], and we know what that means,” said Democratic polling firm Molly Murphy, president of Impact Research, Biden’s primary polling agency, in the 2020 election. “That’s exactly how it feels. That means I feel bad for the Democrats, but I think they’ll do better than I thought six months ago.” “I don’t think anyone is optimistic that the Democrats will have a good night, but the question is how bad it could have been,” she said.
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