NOAA predicts mild, dry winters in southern US, escalating drought

Comments on this story NOAA forecasters expect mild, dry winters in the southern United States, including already drought-affected areas in the lower Mississippi River Valley and southwest, while forecasts around the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes are largely La Niña ( Perhaps driven by expectations that a global climate pattern (as opposed to the better-known El Niño) will last for three consecutive winters. several times in the last 50 years. Although La Niña is cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific, it has a ripple effect on global weather. Drought, and may increase the risk of wildfires in areas of the South Central United States that normally do not face such risks. Drying conditions are also likely to be prolonged and worsened in states such as the Southwest and Kansas and Oklahoma, as well as states that are experiencing extreme and, in many cases, exceptional drought, according to the US Drought Monitor. The level makes it difficult to move cargo through the barge. Climate predictors predict drought conditions along the Ohio River may ease, but a drought in the lower Mississippi Valley and seasonally dry conditions in the Missouri River basin. And that means the momentum of massive droughts in California and the West is not slowing and there is no relief for the arid Colorado River basin and dangerously depleted southwestern reservoirs like Lake Mead and Lake Powell. [drought] “The forecast is not only a La Niña, it’s just a long-term feature of the drought,” said Brad Pugh, a meteorologist at the NOAA Center for Climate Prediction. According to Drought Monitor’s latest weekly report, more than 80% of the continental United States is the most unusually driest since the report began in 2000, the largest percentage non-drought. This winter,” Jon Gottschalck, head of the climate center’s operational forecasting department, said in a statement. “With La Niña climate patterns still present, drought conditions could also extend to the Gulf Coast.” On the other hand, winter precipitation is expected to be much higher than normal in the Pacific Northwest, and storm systems can also carry anomalies. The forecast suggests moderate precipitation, relatively mild, and dry conditions in the Great Lakes region are expected to extend to the Interstate 95 corridor on the east coast, which means that the city from Washington to Boston will be close to the rain and rain line. It means there is a possibility. Gottschalck said snowfall for storms moving along shores More than 80% of the US faces severe dry conditions. . Forecast accuracy is ahead by about a week or more, so for forecasts like the one released by NOAA on Thursday, scientists rely heavily on signals from global climate patterns like La Niña. The southern regions of the country with cooler and wetter than normal conditions along the northern regions, including the Pacific Northwest and Midwest. That’s because it tends to move jet streams (the atmospheric wind bands that control weather systems across the continent) to northern states and Canada. Despite the effects of La Niña, Gottschalck said there is considerable uncertainty in weather patterns in the central region. In countries where predictors predict the same chance of cold or warm conditions and dry or wet patterns. He said the extreme cold that La Niña spread across the country could allow for significant “weekly volatility”, such as the one that caused the energy crisis in Texas in February 2021. Range Weather Prospects Winter 2020-2021, the present La Niña has just begun, but the season has been marked by historic cold across the adjacent United States. The polar vortex, a column of cold air typically remaining in the Arctic region, blew south and recorded the snowiest winter on record across the southernmost point. Still, NOAA’s predictions for this winter closely match the graphics used to portray the classics. La Niña phenomenon. Gottschalck said that while NOAA uses some long-term forecasting models to guide its forecasts, the general forecast for La Niña is “just a first guess.” and heavy rains in Southeast Asia and Australia. The US Climate Prediction Center estimates that there is a 75% chance that a La Niña will continue through at least winter. NOAA’s forecasts for this year are in line with other conventional thinking calling for a La Niña to continue, including seasonal forecasts published by AccuWeather and the Weather Channel. Impact on weather patterns How harsh will winter be? Six organizations publish their forecasts.
#NOAA #predicts #mild #dry #winters #southern #escalating #drought

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *