Quickly strengthen Roslyn to hit Mexico with major hurricane on Sunday

Comments on This Story Hurricane Roslyn is heading towards Mexico’s west coast and is expected to roar at or near a Category 3 robbery somewhere in the states of Jalisco or Nayarit late Saturday or early Sunday. The National Hurricane Center warns that “preparations must be made hastily” for those within Roslyn’s path, while the agency is warning the expected “damaging winds, dangerous storm surges… [and] torrential rain [that] It can lead to flash floods and landslides.” A hurricane warning is in effect from Playa Ferrula to El Roblitto, including the popular resort town of Puerto Vallarta. The islands scattered off the coast, Las Islas Marías, are also in the warning zone. To the north of the warning zone, a hurricane advisory extends to Mazatlan, and a tropical storm advisory covers the area and areas south of the hurricane warning for Manzanillo. A Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 miles per hour struck the area after Storm Kenna in 2002, which made landfall at the entrance to the Rio Grande de Santiago near Boca de Asadero. It was a Category 5 storm just 10 hours before landing. Roslyn’s Sudden Strengthening Roslyn appeared after a storm eventually named Thursday as a group of thunderstorms off Mexico’s west coast condensed into a tropical cyclone. Rosslyn’s hurricane didn’t happen until 11pm ET on Friday, but only six hours later, on Saturday morning, it quickly intensified into a major hurricane, defined as Category 3 or higher. In sustained winds, mph and above are more likely to occur when there is warm water and gentle upper winds. There is a new link between human-induced climate change and the frequency and severity of rapid intensification. How Climate Change Fuels Super Hurricane Fast By late Saturday morning eastern time, Roslyn had winds of 130 mph. It is located more than 150 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving northwest at the time at 7 miles per hour, but it was starting to curve north-northeast. It will steer to Mexico’s western coastline as it begins to feel the effects of an approaching shortwave trough or cold air pockets, low pressure and high rotation near the Baja Peninsula. Expected Effects of Roslyn On the current course, Roslyn is trying to land in the same area as Kenna did. The rural areas of the Narayit coast can then experience a snow wall, a ring of fierce winds that surrounds the serene snow. Roslyn will gradually weaken, but gusts of up to 120 miles per hour are still possible off the shore right next to it. Communities including San Blás, Matenchen and Aticama can experience the strongest winds. Winds will drop exponentially from the outside of the snow, but the tropical storm buffet is still available as far south as Puerto Vallarta. This is because, like all large cyclone systems in the Northern Hemisphere, the storm is rotating counterclockwise. That means the winds south of the snow will hit the land. It will effectively push the water to the shoreline. The National Hurricane Center writes, “Dangerous storm surges are expected to cause severe coastal flooding near and east of the center’s disembarkation.” The agency also indicates that the “big destructive wave” computer model can reach 25 feet in height. Because the slope of the continental shelf is steeper on the west coast, the risk of storm surge is generally less on the west coast of Mexico than on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Without the help of the gently sloping seafloor present at the Pacific-side storm, storms on the Pacific side would not be able to push large amounts of water to the shoreline. Storms are also expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain, with maximum aggregates at the hurricane center. wrote, “This rainfall can lead to flash floods and landslides in rugged terrain areas.”
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